Baseball bettors get to catch their breath for a few days while the major league’s take their annual All-Star break. That makes it a perfect time to look back at the last three and a half months, and review the best and worst in MLB betting in 2019.
Best moneyline bet: Minnesota Twins 56-33 (+16.3 units)
The Twins squeezed out the Texas Rangers as the top moneyline team in the majors, earning .17 units more before the All-Star break (funny enough that’s who they finished up against this weekend before the Mid-Summer Classic). Minnesota made the majority of its money in the first two months of the season, before oddsmakers’ adjusted their daily price tag. The Twins have also been fantastic on the road, going 28-18. That has yielded some solid returns as Minnesota was either an underdog or slim road favorite.
Worst moneyline bet: Kansas City Royals (-20.0 units)
A rough start to July has pushed Kansas City to the bottom of the American League Central – and to the basement in the MLB money rankings. The Royals are just 1-6 this month and the break couldn’t come soon enough for KC’s backers. The Royals ranked 27th in both runs per game (4.2) and collective team ERA (5.08) with a bullpen boasting a chunky 4.83 ERA in the first half of the schedule, including 14 blown saves. They’ve been a home dog in 34 of their overall 44 home stands, winning just 10 of those when price at plus money.
Best Over bet: Seattle Mariners (58-32-4 Over/Under)
When you score 5.10 runs per night and give up 5.16 runs against in those games, you’re going to have a lot of fans betting the Over. Seattle has been the top total topper in the first half of 2019, despite oddsmakers pushing their Over/Under numbers through the roof. The Mariners have nearly identical O/U marks at home and away but funny enough have played lower-scoring ballgames against American League West rivals, posting a 24-20-2 Over/Under in divisional play. That’s a dip from 64% Overs on the season to just 54% versus AL West teams.
Best Under bet: Cincinnati Reds (30-54-3 Over/Under)
Don’t let the 11 runs the Reds allowed to the Indians on Sunday to fool you: this team is stingy when it comes to the scoreboard. Cincinnati owns the third-lowest ERA in the major leagues at 3.77 with a reliable bullpen backing them up, owning a 3.87 ERA – sixth best in the bigs. On the other side of the plate, the Reds push only 4.23 runs past home plate per outing. The funny thing: Cincy is 16-27-2 Over/Under at home (63% Unders) inside Great American Ball Park, which ranks as the fourth-best hitter’s venue in the majors (1.144).
Best runline bet: New York Yankees (52-36 ATS, +18.1 units)
Do you like betting baseball’s version of the pointspread? Do you like home runs? Well, the Bronx Bombers are the best for you! The Yankees have the best runline record in Major League Baseball, covering that 1.5-run spread 59% of the time. New York has been the runline favorite (-1.5 runs) in 70 of those first 88 games, which normally means solid payouts in terms of juice, and have come through for those laying the runs 41 times in those outings.